AUTOSTAT

PLEASE NOTE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS: JimJ_PA@Shaw.ca

AUTOSTAT WAS a new source for information relating to vehicles in British Columbia and its regions (Regioinal Districts, municipalities, rural areas).  Its aim WAS to provide credible and timely data on the characteristics of vehicles around the province and to enable researchers and other interested parties to understand changes in vehicle trends over the last decade and into the future.

There WERE two components of AUTOSTAT.  The first: the provision of a comprehensive set of historical information; the second, using our proprietary VKT/GHG Forecasting Model, the provision of credible analyses of vehicle-related issues.  These WERE to include the impacts of changing fuel prices, the effects of the Carbon Tax, future impacts of electric vehicles, investigations into the effectiveness of Transit options, assessment of Community Energy and Emissions Plans relating to vehicle GHGs, and the like.  In this way, AUTOSTAT WAS TO BE the go-to OBJECTIVE source for all things related to vehicles in BC and their impacts on the environment, on the economy, and on communities.

But a problem came up: the Model did not generate estimates that the government wanted.  The Model estimates of GHG emissions were increasing, when the government wanted them to be decreasing.  And the Model suggested that the Carbon Tax was not very effective.  Obviously you can't have a public Model that gives results that differ from government requirements - that might be embarressing, especially since the government can't justify it's own numbers.  So the solution was simple: deny the raw data for the Model - and presto!!  No longer will there be anyone producing embarressing numbers.

So unfortunately AUTOSTAT will no longer be able to provide the aforementioned information nor be able to update any of the offending reports contained in this website.  Instead, please call the government and they'll tell you all about how GHGs are decreasing in each region and how effective the Carbon Tax is.  Just don't ask how they know that. 

Adios

 

Clicking on MODELS on the right will provide a Flowchart and documentation of the VKT/GHG Forecasting Model that is used for undertaking analyses.

Clicking on TABLES on the right will bring up a series of representative tables that AUTOSTAT can generate.

To DOWNLOAD a .pdf version of a Report, click the appropriate READ MORE on the right and go to bottom of full Report that comes up.  On MOBILE, scroll to bottom.

ABSTRACT

   In 2009, the City of Vancouver initiated its “Greenest City” action plan with the laudable aim of reducing total municipal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 33% by 2020 from a 2007 baseline.  One of the targets set was to reduce average vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) per capita by 20% over that same period. 

   In July, 2016, the city released an “Action Plan Update” outlining how well the city was meeting its objectives.  Based on AirCare odometer data which excludes all vehicles younger than seven years, the Update found that average VKT per capita by 2015 had fallen by 27% since 2007 (more than surpassing its objective) with an almost 18% decline since 2011.  In terms of actual fuel consumption (effectively, GHG emissions), there was a 24% decline since 2007, and over a 15% decline since 2011.

   Contrast that 15% decline in fuel consumption with Ministry of Finance fuel sales data for the South Coast region (slightly larger than Metro Vancouver) which shows an increase of close to 5% between 2011 and 2015.  Either motorists in Vancouver had a remarkable driving epiphany compared to those in Metro Vancouver between 2011 and 2015, or the AirCare data and the methodology used do not capture correctly what has been happening since 2011.  In this study, we identify a number of problems with the data and the methodology used in the Update and, using equivalent AirCare data for Metro Vancouver, we find that the Update results for the 2011 to 2015 are highly suspect.

   Using our VKT/GHG Forecasting Model which was developed for the Ministry of Environment (CEEI) and TransLink and which integrates a detailed statistical analysis of VKT by vehicle type, we found that average VKT in Vancouver, far from falling, actually rose by almost 5% between 2011 and 2015.  We detail the advantages of using this approach, and how it not only provides more reliable estimates of historical VKT, but also affords