Below is a flowchart representation of the VKT/GHG Forecasting Model first developed the mid-2000s to provide the Ministry of Transportation with forecasts of fuel tax revenues; later expanded to provide the Ministry of Environment with input data to generate CEEI estimates for 2007 and 2010; enhanced and licensed to TransLink in 2013 for their internal analyses; and lately expanded to link into USEPA forecasts for crude oil prices, fuel consumption rates and expected vehicle sales data by vehicle type (e.g., the expected uptake of electric vehicles) in order to make the Model more dynamic in response to changing vehicle technologies.
The Model generates 25 year projections of Vehicle Stock, fuel consumption rates, VKT estimates, and GHG emissions (plus other attributes) for any region of the province. The Model incorporates USEPA forecasts (Reference Case plus alternate scenarios) for vehicle characteristics (expected changes in fuel efficencies, etc.) and crude oil prices. The user can select one of the USEPA-designated forecasts or substitute their own forecasts. In addition, there are a variety of policy variables that the user can change to determine how these variables may change driver behaviour and expected GHG emissions in the future. These variables include: incomes, fuel taxes, transit options (e.g., hours of bus and Skytrain service, transit access, transit fare costs), local densities, location of new suburbs, etc.).
For a complete Flowchart in Excel with associated comments, download the file below.
For documentation on exactly how the Model works and a complete description of the econometrics, download the Description file.